GDP in the hottest third quarter may increase by 7

GDP in the third quarter may increase by 7.8% this year, and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed expectations

today, the National Bureau of statistics will release the national economic data in the third quarter. Most institutions and experts predict that China's GDP growth in the third quarter may pick up slightly from the second quarter, or reach 7.8%. According to experts' analysis, with the introduction of the micro stimulus policy of stable growth in the middle of the year, the demand of the internal and external markets has been booming, and China's economy stabilized and rebounded in the third quarter; The economy will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter, but due to the high base, the growth rate may be slightly lower than that in the third quarter, and the annual growth rate should be higher than the regulation target of 7.5%

the economy has stabilized and recovered significantly, and the growth rate in the third quarter may rebound to the end of September. Since then, major institutions have made predictions on the macroeconomic data in the third quarter, and unanimously expected that China's economic growth in the third quarter will rebound compared with that in the second quarter

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicted that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 7.8%. The Research Report of the financial research center of the Bank of communications also predicts that the month on month growth rate of domestic GDP will stabilize and rebound in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 7.7%. Song Yu, China macro economist at Goldman Sachs Gaohua, predicts that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter will rise to 7.8% from 7.5% in the second quarter. This year-on-year growth rate forecast is higher than its previous forecast of 7.7%

zhoujingtong, senior analyst of the Strategic Development Department of the Bank of China, has repeatedly told China news finance and economics channel that it is expected that the domestic GDP growth rate in the third quarter may reach 7.8%. At the previous China economic situation analysis meeting held by China news service, Fanjianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, also predicted that China's economic growth rate could reach 7.8% in the third quarter of this year

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, analyzed that since June, driven by a series of "policy support to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range" launched by the State Council, economic growth has begun to show a stabilizing trend

since the beginning of the third quarter, a series of economic data have confirmed the stabilization and recovery of the economy. In the third quarter, the domestic PMI gradually rebounded every month, the expectations of enterprises for the future economic operation were significantly improved, and the economic operation showed an obvious trend of stabilization. The decline in PPI narrowed for several consecutive months, with a month on month increase of 0.2% in September. The credit data is significantly higher than expected, indicating that there is a strong demand for corporate credit

the Keqiang index of power generation, railway freight volume and medium and long-term credit growth simulation has rebounded for three consecutive months since June. Lian Ping said that this also indicates that the momentum of domestic economic growth may shift to expansion in the third quarter

for the reasons for the economic rebound, Zhou Jingtong believes that there are two factors, external and internal: the economic recovery of developed economies in the first half of the year has a pulling effect on China's exports in the second half of the year, because there is a lag of months during the period, "said Wang Yuanbing, general manager of jiayitong company; The other is that since the middle of the year, China has introduced a series of micro stimulus policies, which have gradually shown their effects

the recovery and positive trend will continue. The annual growth rate is expected to be higher than the regulation target.

since the end of August, many international investment banks have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year. They believe that China's economy has hit the bottom and may maintain its rebound momentum. The industry believes that China's economy will continue to recover, but due to the base number, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year may fall slightly month on month

China's economic situation in the second half of this year is generally good. Zhou Jingtong told China news finance and economics channel that due to the influence of the base factor in 2012 (2) and 2016, the growth rate in the fourth quarter will definitely fall back from that in the third quarter, which is estimated to be about 7.7%. It's not that the economy was bad in the fourth quarter, but that the growth rate of 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year was relatively high, so it's normal to fall down on a month on month basis

Lin Yifu, vice chairman of the all China Federation of industry and Commerce and economist, said at a forum a few days ago that China's economy will continue to rebound in the third and fourth quarters, and the growth rate is expected to remain at 7.5% to 8%

although the growth rate may fall in the fourth quarter, most experts believe that the annual economic growth rate will be higher than the government's regulation target of 7.5%. Zhou Jingtong predicted that the year-on-year growth rate was 7.6%. Zhao Qingming, a financial expert and adjunct professor of the University of international business and economics, told the China news finance and economics channel that there is no doubt that there is no doubt about reaching the annual economic growth target. On the one hand, it is the economic recovery of the United States and the European Union, on the other hand, it is the rapid growth of investment in China. He predicted that the annual economic growth should be higher than the expected target of 7.5%, which is to further improve the performance of ordinary steel by about 7.7%

the "analysis and forecast of China's economic situation in autumn 2013 report" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also believes that this year's economic growth will be the same as last year, reaching 7.7%

it is believed that there is a complete foundation for China's economy to achieve the main goals of the whole year, and the positive trend of China's economy will continue. Premier Li Keqiang said during his visit to Vietnam a few days ago that we will continue to deepen the reform of the economic system and the adjustment of the economic structure, so that China's economy will continue to develop healthily, and all the people will feel the tangible results

however, according to Zhou Jingtong's analysis of China news business channel, there are still some uncertain factors in the fourth quarter of the economic recovery process. Externally, the timing and intensity of the US fiscal impasse and QE exit will have a certain impact on China's economy; Domestic economic risks are mainly concentrated in overcapacity, the real estate market and local government debt